Prelims1
Welterweight
Emil Meek vs Bartosz Fabinski
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Smith
·Barclaycard Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Emil Meek
Bartosz Fabinski
34%
66%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 0"
75"
30
Age
Δ 2y
32
9-6-1
Career record
Δ 20 pp
16-5
L1
Current streak
W2
2
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Meek: 21 sig / 0 TD ·
Fabinski: 35 sig / 6 TD
Emil Meek
Bartosz Fabinski
22
Sig strikes landed
27
62
Sig strikes attempted
49
49
Total strikes landed
51
0.6
Takedowns landed
3.8
2.4
Takedowns attempted
5.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
109s
Control time
376s
Method
Decision
72%
KO/TKO
16%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Emil Meek
"Valhalla"
9-6-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Switch
Age
30
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. C…
—
W
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
—
Blue corner
W2
Bartosz Fabinski
"The Butcher"
16-5
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Gaste…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro…
—