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Main Heavyweight

Marcin Tybura vs Stefan Struve

UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Smith ·Barclaycard Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Marcin Tybura
Stefan Struve
48% 52%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 6"
84"
33
Age
Δ 2y
30
27-12
Career record
Δ 1 pp
33-14
L2
Current streak
L2
6
UFC fights in our DB
16

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Tybura: 41 sig / 5 TD · Struve: 31 sig / 0 TD
Marcin Tybura
Stefan Struve
45
Sig strikes landed
35
79
Sig strikes attempted
83
67
Total strikes landed
45
2.3
Takedowns landed
0.3
3.6
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
296s
Control time
57s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
23%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Marcin Tybura

"Tybur"
27-12
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Me…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tyb…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Corre…
—
W UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2
—
W UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
Blue corner
L2

Stefan Struve

"Skyscraper"
33-14
Career record
Height
83"
Reach
85"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 16 fights · 9-7
Last 5
L UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya
—
L UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Str…
—
W UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson
—
W UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arl…
—
L UFC 193: Rousey vs Holm
—