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Nasrat Haqparast vs Marc Diakiese

UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Smith ·Barclaycard Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Nasrat Haqparast
Marc Diakiese
65% 35%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 1"
73"
23
Age
Δ 2y
25
18-7
Career record
Δ 4 pp
17-8
L1
Current streak
L2
1
UFC fights in our DB
5

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Haqparast: 93 sig / 0 TD · Diakiese: 50 sig / 0 TD
Nasrat Haqparast
Marc Diakiese
27
Sig strikes landed
31
69
Sig strikes attempted
71
33
Total strikes landed
46
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.6
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.50
Knockdowns
0.30
70s
Control time
124s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
22%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Nasrat Haqparast

18-7
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
23
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Ti…
—
Blue corner
L2

Marc Diakiese

"Bonecrusher"
17-8
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database 5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm
—
L The Ultimate Fighter: Redemptio…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Manuwa vs. And…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Abdu…
—
W UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson
—