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Prelims2 Flyweight

Mark De La Rosa vs Elias Garcia

UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Ivanov ·CenturyLink Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Mark De La Rosa
Elias Garcia
61% 39%
Why
65"
Reach
Δ 2"
67"
24
Age
Δ 2y
26
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
De La Rosa: 25 sig / 2 TD · Garcia: 19 sig / 0 TD
Mark De La Rosa
Elias Garcia
27
Sig strikes landed
32
56
Sig strikes attempted
58
50
Total strikes landed
48
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.1
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
122s
Control time
144s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
23%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Mark De La Rosa

"Bumblebee"
11-6
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm
—
Blue corner

Elias Garcia

0-0
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26