Back to UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Ivanov
Prelims2 Women's Strawweight

Jessica Aguilar vs Jodie Esquibel

UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Ivanov ·CenturyLink Arena
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Jessica Aguilar
Jodie Esquibel
76% 24%
Why
63"
Reach
Δ 1"
64"
36
Age
Δ 4y
32
20-9
Career record
Δ 23 pp
6-7
L2
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Aguilar: 128 sig / 0 TD · Esquibel: 81 sig / 0 TD
Jessica Aguilar
Jodie Esquibel
80
Sig strikes landed
61
165
Sig strikes attempted
158
106
Total strikes landed
78
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.6
5.0
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.00
253s
Control time
93s
Method
Decision
76%
KO/TKO
14%
Submission
11%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Jessica Aguilar

"Jag"
20-9
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database 2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos
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L UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia
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Blue corner
L1

Jodie Esquibel

6-7
Career record
Height
61"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Ti…
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