Back to UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Ivanov
Prelims1 Flyweight

Justin Scoggins vs Said Nurmagomedov

UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Ivanov ·CenturyLink Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Justin Scoggins
Said Nurmagomedov
38% 62%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 4"
70"
26
Age
Δ 0y
26
L2
Current streak
—
8
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Scoggins: 32 sig / 0 TD · Nurmagomedov: 65 sig / 1 TD
Justin Scoggins
Said Nurmagomedov
38
Sig strikes landed
38
77
Sig strikes attempted
84
53
Total strikes landed
58
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.1
4.0
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
189s
Control time
132s
Method
Decision
63%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
19%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Justin Scoggins

11-6
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
66"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
In our database 8 fights · 4-4
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Corre…
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L UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogu…
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W UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs T…
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W UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier
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L UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mous…
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Blue corner

Said Nurmagomedov

0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26