Prelims1
Featherweight
Darren Elkins vs Alexander Volkanovski
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Ivanov
·CenturyLink Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Darren Elkins
Alexander Volkanovski
27%
73%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 0"
72"
34
Age
Δ 4y
30
30-12
Career record
Δ 16 pp
29-4
W6
Current streak
W4
18
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Elkins: 82 sig / 1 TD ·
Volkanovski: 100 sig / 2 TD
Darren Elkins
Alexander Volkanovski
37
Sig strikes landed
50
103
Sig strikes attempted
87
59
Total strikes landed
81
1.5
Takedowns landed
2.2
6.6
Takedowns attempted
4.3
0.00
Knockdowns
0.40
136s
Control time
213s
Method
Decision
64%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W6
Darren Elkins
"The Damage"
30-12
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
18 fights · 14-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. C…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2
—
W
UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko
—
W
UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz
—
Blue corner
W4
Alexander Volkanovski
"The Great"
29-4
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tyb…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Hunt
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—