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Jay Cucciniello vs Brad Katona

The Ultimate Fighter: Undefeated Finale ·Pearl Concert Theater
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Jay Cucciniello
Brad Katona
40% 60%
Why
32
Age
Δ 6y
26

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Cucciniello: 14 sig / 0 TD · Katona: 71 sig / 2 TD
Jay Cucciniello
Brad Katona
33
Sig strikes landed
41
73
Sig strikes attempted
80
43
Total strikes landed
57
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.9
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
121s
Control time
140s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
17%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Jay Cucciniello

0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
Blue corner

Brad Katona

"Superman"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27