Main
Featherweight
Alex Caceres vs Martin Bravo
The Ultimate Fighter: Undefeated Finale
·Pearl Concert Theater
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Alex Caceres
Martin Bravo
49%
51%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
30
Age
Δ 5y
25
21-16
Career record
Δ 17 pp
11-4
L1
Current streak
L1
18
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Caceres: 82 sig / 0 TD ·
Bravo: 78 sig / 3 TD
Alex Caceres
Martin Bravo
67
Sig strikes landed
45
115
Sig strikes attempted
108
66
Total strikes landed
54
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.4
1.9
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
80s
Control time
77s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Alex Caceres
"Bruce Leeroy"
21-16
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
18 fights · 8-9
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Corre…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
W
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2
—
Blue corner
L1
Martin Bravo
"El Toro"
11-4
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
25
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Mor…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—