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Luis Pena vs Richie Smullen

The Ultimate Fighter: Undefeated Finale ·Pearl Concert Theater
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Luis Pena
Richie Smullen
70% 30%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 7"
68"
25
Age
Δ 2y
27

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Pena: 8 sig / 1 TD · Smullen: 7 sig / 2 TD
Luis Pena
Richie Smullen
38
Sig strikes landed
29
78
Sig strikes attempted
66
58
Total strikes landed
36
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.3
0.7
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
97s
Control time
158s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
20%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Luis Pena

"Violent Bob Ross"
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
25
Blue corner

Richie Smullen

0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27