Prelims1
Women's Flyweight
Montana De La Rosa vs Rachael Ostovich
The Ultimate Fighter: Undefeated Finale
·Pearl Concert Theater
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Montana De La Rosa
Rachael Ostovich
76%
24%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 6"
62"
23
Age
Δ 4y
27
14-9-1
Career record
Δ 13 pp
5-6
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
De La Rosa: 56 sig / 0 TD ·
Ostovich: 40 sig / 0 TD
Montana De La Rosa
Rachael Ostovich
32
Sig strikes landed
12
78
Sig strikes attempted
58
33
Total strikes landed
24
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.5
1.5
Takedowns attempted
3.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
129s
Control time
77s
Method
Decision
21%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
58%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Montana De La Rosa
14-9-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
The Ultimate Fighter: A New Wor…
—
Blue corner
W1
Rachael Ostovich
5-6
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
62"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
The Ultimate Fighter: A New Wor…
—