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Main Women's Flyweight

Roxanne Modafferi vs Barb Honchak

The Ultimate Fighter: Undefeated Finale ·Pearl Concert Theater
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Roxanne Modafferi
Barb Honchak
61% 39%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 4"
66"
36
Age
Δ 3y
39
25-22
Career record
Δ 13 pp
10-5
L2
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Modafferi: 51 sig / 1 TD · Honchak: 24 sig / 0 TD
Roxanne Modafferi
Barb Honchak
79
Sig strikes landed
88
181
Sig strikes attempted
214
101
Total strikes landed
95
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.9
3.9
Takedowns attempted
4.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.00
197s
Control time
67s
Method
Decision
68%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
10%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Roxanne Modafferi

"The Happy Warrior"
25-22
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database 2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L The Ultimate Fighter: A New Wor…
—
L The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rous…
—
Blue corner
L1

Barb Honchak

"Little Warrior"
10-5
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L The Ultimate Fighter: A New Wor…
—