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Prelims2 Featherweight

Matt Bessette vs Steven Peterson

The Ultimate Fighter: Undefeated Finale ·Pearl Concert Theater
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Matt Bessette
Steven Peterson
55% 45%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 0"
70"
34
Age
Δ 5y
28
22-10
Career record
Δ 7 pp
19-12
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Bessette: 57 sig / 0 TD · Peterson: 74 sig / 2 TD
Matt Bessette
Steven Peterson
63
Sig strikes landed
58
155
Sig strikes attempted
151
74
Total strikes landed
87
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.5
Takedowns attempted
4.8
0.50
Knockdowns
0.20
67s
Control time
125s
Method
Decision
70%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
7%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Matt Bessette

"The Mangler"
22-10 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou
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Blue corner
L1

Steven Peterson

"Ocho"
19-12
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Me…
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