Main
Middleweight
Alessio Di Chirico vs Julian Marquez
The Ultimate Fighter: Undefeated Finale
·Pearl Concert Theater
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Alessio Di Chirico
Julian Marquez
64%
36%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
29
Age
Δ 0y
28
14-7
Career record
Δ 4 pp
10-6
W1
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Di Chirico: 50 sig / 4 TD ·
Marquez: 47 sig / 0 TD
Alessio Di Chirico
Julian Marquez
32
Sig strikes landed
36
77
Sig strikes attempted
81
45
Total strikes landed
47
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.7
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
118s
Control time
106s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Alessio Di Chirico
"Manzo"
14-7
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Lawler vs. Dos…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
—
W
UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rothwell vs Do…
—
Blue corner
W1
Julian Marquez
"The Cuban Missile Crisis"
10-6
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Lawler vs. Dos…
—