Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Thiago Santos
Kevin Holland
36%
64%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 5"
81"
35
Age
Δ 9y
26
L1
Current streak
—
14
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Santos: 69 sig / 3 TD ·
Holland: 31 sig / 0 TD
Thiago Santos
Kevin Holland
34
Sig strikes landed
34
71
Sig strikes attempted
77
44
Total strikes landed
49
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.3
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
130s
Control time
77s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Thiago Santos
"Marreta"
22-12
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
14 fights · 9-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. An…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ma…
—
W
UFC 213: Romero vs. Whittaker
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Brow…
—
Blue corner
Kevin Holland
"Trailblazer"
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
81"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26