Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Cub Swanson
Renato Moicano
56%
44%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
35
Age
Δ 6y
29
31-15
Career record
Δ 6 pp
22-7-1
L2
Current streak
W1
15
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Swanson: 20 sig / 0 TD ·
Moicano: 17 sig / 1 TD
Cub Swanson
Renato Moicano
73
Sig strikes landed
66
152
Sig strikes attempted
152
81
Total strikes landed
77
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.9
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
70s
Control time
76s
Method
Decision
71%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Cub Swanson
31-15
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
15 fights · 10-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Or…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lo…
—
W
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
Blue corner
W1
Renato Moicano
22-7-1
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta
—
L
UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
—
W
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dol…
—