Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Eric Spicely
Darren Stewart
55%
45%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 1"
74"
32
Age
Δ 4y
27
12-7
Career record
Δ 6 pp
12-9
L2
Current streak
L3
5
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Spicely: 15 sig / 0 TD ·
Stewart: 34 sig / 0 TD
Eric Spicely
Darren Stewart
26
Sig strikes landed
16
46
Sig strikes attempted
24
43
Total strikes landed
34
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.0
3.5
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
161s
Control time
152s
Method
Decision
28%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
35%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Eric Spicely
"Zebrinha"
12-7
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L
The Ultimate Fighter: A New Wor…
—
L
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway
—
W
UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lan…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. L…
—
Blue corner
L3
Darren Stewart
"The Dentist"
12-9
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
4 fights · 0-3
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Lawler vs. Dos…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pe…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Manuwa vs. And…
—