Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Daniel Kelly
Tom Breese
36%
64%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 3"
74"
41
Age
Δ 14y
27
13-5
Career record
Δ 3 pp
12-4
L2
Current streak
L1
9
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Kelly: 6 sig / 0 TD ·
Breese: 23 sig / 0 TD
Daniel Kelly
Tom Breese
32
Sig strikes landed
39
72
Sig strikes attempted
85
47
Total strikes landed
45
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.3
4.0
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.70
133s
Control time
64s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
56%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Daniel Kelly
13-5
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
41
In our database
9 fights · 6-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tyb…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Hunt
—
W
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir
—
Blue corner
L1
Tom Breese
12-4
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
L
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Bispi…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holohan vs Smo…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Alves
—