Prelims1
Flyweight
Brandon Moreno vs Alexandre Pantoja
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman
·Movistar Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Brandon Moreno
Alexandre Pantoja
34%
66%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
24
Age
Δ 4y
28
23-11-2
Career record
Δ 17 pp
30-7
L1
Current streak
L1
4
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Moreno: 45 sig / 2 TD ·
Pantoja: 79 sig / 0 TD
Brandon Moreno
Alexandre Pantoja
36
Sig strikes landed
47
107
Sig strikes attempted
103
58
Total strikes landed
75
1.6
Takedowns landed
1.6
5.4
Takedowns attempted
3.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
155s
Control time
147s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Brandon Moreno
"The Assassin Baby"
23-11-2
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Mor…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lo…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournamen…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Do…
—
Blue corner
L1
Alexandre Pantoja
"The Cannibal"
30-7
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Pon…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
—