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Prelims1 Women's Strawweight

Poliana Botelho vs Syuri Kondo

UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman ·Movistar Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Poliana Botelho
Syuri Kondo
51% 49%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 0"
66"
29
Age
Δ 0y
29
9-5
Career record
Δ 6 pp
7-3
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Botelho: 9 sig / 0 TD · Kondo: 2 sig / 0 TD
Poliana Botelho
Syuri Kondo
66
Sig strikes landed
77
178
Sig strikes attempted
130
76
Total strikes landed
72
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.2
0.2
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.50
102s
Control time
146s
Method
Decision
86%
KO/TKO
8%
Submission
6%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Poliana Botelho

9-5
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee
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Blue corner
W1

Syuri Kondo

7-3
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Saint Preux vs…
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