Main
Women's Strawweight
Alexa Grasso vs Tatiana Suarez
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman
·Movistar Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Alexa Grasso
Tatiana Suarez
53%
47%
Why
66"
Reach
66"
25
Age
Δ 3y
27
18-5-1
Career record
Δ 18 pp
14-1
W1
Current streak
W2
3
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Grasso: 6 sig / 0 TD ·
Suarez: 2 sig / 2 TD
Alexa Grasso
Tatiana Suarez
37
Sig strikes landed
45
79
Sig strikes attempted
103
64
Total strikes landed
72
0.2
Takedowns landed
3.0
1.0
Takedowns attempted
5.4
0.00
Knockdowns
0.10
60s
Control time
273s
Method
Decision
61%
KO/TKO
12%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Alexa Grasso
18-5-1
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Mor…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Bermudez vs. T…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
Blue corner
W2
Tatiana Suarez
14-1
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
66"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pe…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joan…
—