Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Demian Maia
Kamaru Usman
40%
60%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 4"
76"
40
Age
Δ 10y
31
28-12
Career record
Δ 15 pp
22-4
L2
Current streak
W7
21
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Maia: 27 sig / 0 TD ·
Usman: 66 sig / 0 TD
Demian Maia
Kamaru Usman
27
Sig strikes landed
48
61
Sig strikes attempted
130
52
Total strikes landed
91
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.4
10.1
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.00
Knockdowns
0.30
153s
Control time
302s
Method
Decision
72%
KO/TKO
14%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Demian Maia
28-12
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
41
In our database
21 fights · 14-7
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ma…
—
L
UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2
—
W
UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos
—
W
UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit
—
W
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
—
Blue corner
W7
Kamaru Usman
"The Nigerian Nightmare"
22-4
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Switch
Age
31
In our database
7 fights · 7-0
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. C…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. B…
—
W
UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogu…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko
—