Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Diego Rivas
Guido Cannetti
86%
14%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 1"
68"
26
Age
Δ 12y
38
10-3
Career record
Δ 24 pp
10-9
L1
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Rivas: 22 sig / 2 TD ·
Cannetti: 25 sig / 1 TD
Diego Rivas
Guido Cannetti
31
Sig strikes landed
18
66
Sig strikes attempted
33
54
Total strikes landed
29
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.7
3.1
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
214s
Control time
141s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Diego Rivas
"Pitbull"
10-3
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Mor…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs T…
—
W
UFC Fight Night 56: Shogun vs S…
—
Blue corner
L1
Guido Cannetti
"Ninja"
10-9
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
38
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. C…
—
W
UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia
—
L
UFC 180: Werdum vs Hunt
—