Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Vicente Luque
Chad Laprise
75%
25%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 4"
71"
26
Age
Δ 5y
32
25-12-1
Career record
Δ 12 pp
14-4
W1
Current streak
W3
7
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Luque: 14 sig / 0 TD ·
Laprise: 13 sig / 0 TD
Vicente Luque
Chad Laprise
42
Sig strikes landed
38
99
Sig strikes attempted
84
53
Total strikes landed
47
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.5
2.8
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
109s
Control time
97s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Vicente Luque
"The Silent Assassin"
25-12-1
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ma…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Manuwa vs. And…
—
W
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lan…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
Blue corner
W3
Chad Laprise
"The Disciple"
14-4
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Lawler vs. Dos…
—
W
UFC 213: Romero vs. Whittaker
—
W
UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Ol…
—