Back to UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes
Prelims1 Welterweight

Belal Muhammad vs Chance Rencountre

UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes ·Adirondack Bank Center
Previous fight Next fight

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Belal Muhammad
Chance Rencountre
77% 23%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 3"
75"
30
Age
Δ 2y
31
W3
Current streak
—
6
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Muhammad: 70 sig / 3 TD · Rencountre: 16 sig / 0 TD
Belal Muhammad
Chance Rencountre
51
Sig strikes landed
38
109
Sig strikes attempted
102
77
Total strikes landed
54
2.2
Takedowns landed
0.6
5.5
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
235s
Control time
57s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
11%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W3

Belal Muhammad

"Remember the Name"
25-5 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tyb…
—
W UFC 213: Romero vs. Whittaker
—
W UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie
—
L UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
—
W UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Jo…
—
Blue corner

Chance Rencountre

"Black Eagle"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31