Prelims1
Lightweight
Desmond Green vs Gleison Tibau
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes
·Adirondack Bank Center
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Desmond Green
Gleison Tibau
61%
39%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 2"
71"
29
Age
Δ 6y
35
23-9
Career record
Δ 3 pp
33-15
L2
Current streak
L3
3
UFC fights in our DB
17
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Green: 77 sig / 0 TD ·
Tibau: 28 sig / 0 TD
Desmond Green
Gleison Tibau
44
Sig strikes landed
32
93
Sig strikes attempted
91
54
Total strikes landed
52
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.5
1.0
Takedowns attempted
4.6
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
61s
Control time
178s
Method
Decision
68%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Desmond Green
"The Predator"
23-9
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. An…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Str…
—
W
UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2
—
Blue corner
L3
Gleison Tibau
33-15
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database
17 fights · 10-7
Last 5
L
UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
L
UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano
—
W
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Si…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Arl…
—