Prelims1
Lightweight
Nik Lentz vs David Teymur
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes
·Adirondack Bank Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Nik Lentz
David Teymur
73%
27%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 5"
73"
34
Age
Δ 5y
29
31-12-2
Career record
Δ 13 pp
9-2
W1
Current streak
W4
18
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Lentz: 61 sig / 0 TD ·
Teymur: 67 sig / 0 TD
Nik Lentz
David Teymur
42
Sig strikes landed
40
96
Sig strikes attempted
89
58
Total strikes landed
48
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.1
6.5
Takedowns attempted
0.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
171s
Control time
31s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Nik Lentz
"The Carny"
31-12-2
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
18 fights · 11-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tyb…
—
L
UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie
—
W
UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem
—
W
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowbo…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Alves
—
Blue corner
W4
David Teymur
9-2
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
—
W
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Bispi…
—