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Julio Arce vs Daniel Teymur

UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes ·Adirondack Bank Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Julio Arce
Daniel Teymur
82% 18%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
69"
29
Age
Δ 2y
30
20-6
Career record
Δ 19 pp
7-5
W1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Arce: 63 sig / 0 TD · Teymur: 37 sig / 0 TD
Julio Arce
Daniel Teymur
66
Sig strikes landed
51
156
Sig strikes attempted
116
88
Total strikes landed
60
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.8
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
133s
Control time
80s
Method
Decision
70%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
10%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Julio Arce

20-6
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou
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Blue corner
L1

Daniel Teymur

"Kid Dynamite"
7-5
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Pon…
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