Main
Light Heavyweight
Gian Villante vs Sam Alvey
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes
·Adirondack Bank Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Gian Villante
Sam Alvey
30%
70%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 0"
76"
33
Age
Δ 1y
32
18-14
Career record
Δ 8 pp
34-18-1
W1
Current streak
W1
12
UFC fights in our DB
14
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Villante: 50 sig / 0 TD ·
Alvey: 53 sig / 0 TD
Gian Villante
Sam Alvey
50
Sig strikes landed
56
109
Sig strikes attempted
106
54
Total strikes landed
56
0.3
Takedowns landed
0.5
1.2
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
53s
Control time
64s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Gian Villante
18-14
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
12 fights · 6-6
Last 5
W
UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Ga…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Abdu…
—
L
UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz
—
Blue corner
W1
Sam Alvey
"Smile'N"
34-18-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
14 fights · 9-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Ste…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Ti…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Mor…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lo…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
—