Main
Welterweight
Jake Ellenberger vs Ben Saunders
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes
·Adirondack Bank Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jake Ellenberger
Ben Saunders
75%
25%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 6"
78"
33
Age
Δ 2y
35
31-16
Career record
Δ 8 pp
22-14-2
L2
Current streak
L2
18
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Ellenberger: 5 sig / 0 TD ·
Saunders: 10 sig / 0 TD
Jake Ellenberger
Ben Saunders
25
Sig strikes landed
29
57
Sig strikes attempted
66
41
Total strikes landed
44
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.1
2.3
Takedowns attempted
0.7
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
135s
Control time
12s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Jake Ellenberger
"The Juggernaut"
31-16
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
18 fights · 10-8
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lo…
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournamen…
—
W
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: American …
—
Blue corner
L2
Ben Saunders
"Killa B"
22-14-2
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
9 fights · 4-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Ste…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs C…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao…
—