Main
Lightweight
Gregor Gillespie vs Vinc Pichel
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes
·Adirondack Bank Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Gregor Gillespie
Vinc Pichel
76%
24%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 1"
72"
32
Age
Δ 4y
36
15-1
Career record
Δ 19 pp
15-5
W4
Current streak
W4
4
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Gillespie: 13 sig / 7 TD ·
Pichel: 7 sig / 0 TD
Gregor Gillespie
Vinc Pichel
28
Sig strikes landed
26
63
Sig strikes attempted
67
54
Total strikes landed
36
2.9
Takedowns landed
0.3
4.9
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.00
291s
Control time
49s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Gregor Gillespie
"The Gift"
15-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Bru…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. B…
—
W
UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lan…
—
Blue corner
W4
Vinc Pichel
"From Hell"
15-5
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Bru…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Hunt
—
W
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Ph…
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carw…
—