Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Warlley Alves
Sultan Aliev
54%
46%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
27
Age
Δ 6y
34
16-8
Career record
Δ 18 pp
16-3
W1
Current streak
W1
7
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
TKO - Doctor's Stoppage · Round 2
Alves: 29 sig / 0 TD ·
Aliev: 12 sig / 1 TD
Warlley Alves
Sultan Aliev
22
Sig strikes landed
26
38
Sig strikes attempted
49
43
Total strikes landed
50
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.6
2.1
Takedowns attempted
4.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
166s
Control time
209s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Warlley Alves
16-8
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Ti…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogu…
—
L
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
—
W
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
—
W
UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia
—
Blue corner
W1
Sultan Aliev
16-3
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson
—
L
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johns…
—