Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Thales Leites
Jack Hermansson
58%
42%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 0"
78"
37
Age
Δ 7y
30
28-10
Career record
Δ 5 pp
24-11
L1
Current streak
L1
11
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Leites: 11 sig / 3 TD ·
Hermansson: 35 sig / 3 TD
Thales Leites
Jack Hermansson
29
Sig strikes landed
38
67
Sig strikes attempted
70
49
Total strikes landed
53
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.8
4.5
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.00
Knockdowns
0.30
221s
Control time
98s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Thales Leites
28-10
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
11 fights · 7-4
Last 5
L
UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lo…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogu…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Bispi…
—
Blue corner
L1
Jack Hermansson
"The Joker"
24-11
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ma…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Mor…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogu…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. B…
—