Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Aleksei Oleinik
Junior Albini
95%
5%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 6"
74"
41
Age
Δ 14y
27
60-18-1
Career record
Δ 9 pp
14-7
L1
Current streak
L1
6
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Oleinik: 10 sig / 0 TD ·
Albini: 10 sig / 1 TD
Aleksei Oleinik
Junior Albini
35
Sig strikes landed
27
46
Sig strikes attempted
45
56
Total strikes landed
38
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.5
1.6
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
116s
Control time
112s
Method
Decision
14%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
65%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Aleksei Oleinik
"The Boa Constrictor"
60-18-1
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
41
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
L
UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre
—
W
UFC 213: Romero vs. Whittaker
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. L…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swans…
—
Blue corner
L1
Junior Albini
"Baby"
14-7
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pe…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Ga…
—