Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Cezar Ferreira
Karl Roberson
58%
42%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 4"
74"
33
Age
Δ 6y
28
14-8
Career record
Δ 1 pp
10-6
W1
Current streak
W1
12
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Ferreira: 5 sig / 2 TD ·
Roberson: 4 sig / 0 TD
Cezar Ferreira
Karl Roberson
14
Sig strikes landed
17
32
Sig strikes attempted
36
32
Total strikes landed
22
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.8
3.2
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
176s
Control time
132s
Method
Decision
26%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
38%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Cezar Ferreira
"Mutante"
14-8
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
79"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
12 fights · 8-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pe…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Brow…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogu…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joan…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans
—
Blue corner
W1
Karl Roberson
"Baby K"
10-6
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pe…
—