Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
John Lineker
Brian Kelleher
87%
13%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 1"
66"
28
Age
Δ 4y
32
32-9
Career record
Δ 17 pp
25-16
W1
Current streak
W2
14
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Lineker: 102 sig / 0 TD ·
Kelleher: 50 sig / 1 TD
John Lineker
Brian Kelleher
71
Sig strikes landed
57
163
Sig strikes attempted
140
79
Total strikes landed
62
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.1
Takedowns attempted
3.6
0.60
Knockdowns
0.10
75s
Control time
79s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
John Lineker
"Hands of Stone"
32-9
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
14 fights · 11-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ma…
—
L
UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Do…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. L…
—
W
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
—
Blue corner
W2
Brian Kelleher
"Boom"
25-16
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Switch
Age
32
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Ste…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Ti…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway
—