Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Vitor Belfort
Lyoto Machida
52%
48%
Why
74"
Reach
74"
41
Age
Δ 1y
40
27-14
Career record
Δ 10 pp
25-8
W1
Current streak
W1
13
UFC fights in our DB
15
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Belfort: 2 sig / 0 TD ·
Machida: 11 sig / 0 TD
Vitor Belfort
Lyoto Machida
26
Sig strikes landed
31
60
Sig strikes attempted
64
37
Total strikes landed
41
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.7
0.9
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
34s
Control time
78s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
51%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Vitor Belfort
"The Phenom"
27-14
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
41
In our database
13 fights · 7-5
Last 5
W
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway
—
L
UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson
—
L
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
L
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier
—
Blue corner
W1
Lyoto Machida
"The Dragon"
25-8
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
40
In our database
15 fights · 7-8
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. An…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ma…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Rom…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dol…
—