Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Jacare Souza
Kelvin Gastelum
53%
47%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 0"
72"
38
Age
Δ 12y
26
27-10
Career record
Δ 6 pp
22-11
W1
Current streak
W1
10
UFC fights in our DB
13
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Souza: 64 sig / 1 TD ·
Gastelum: 53 sig / 0 TD
Jacare Souza
Kelvin Gastelum
28
Sig strikes landed
40
63
Sig strikes attempted
78
43
Total strikes landed
54
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.6
4.6
Takedowns attempted
0.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.60
180s
Control time
98s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Jacare Souza
27-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
10 fights · 8-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Bru…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
—
W
UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie
—
W
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
—
L
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
—
Blue corner
W1
Kelvin Gastelum
22-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
13 fights · 9-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs. Ga…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
—
W
UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Gaste…
—