Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Clay Guida
Charles Oliveira
22%
78%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 4"
74"
36
Age
Δ 8y
29
39-22
Career record
Δ 12 pp
37-12
W2
Current streak
L1
15
UFC fights in our DB
19
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Guida: 9 sig / 0 TD ·
Oliveira: 14 sig / 0 TD
Clay Guida
Charles Oliveira
22
Sig strikes landed
29
54
Sig strikes attempted
67
47
Total strikes landed
40
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.5
4.3
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
245s
Control time
81s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
50%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Clay Guida
"The Carpenter"
39-22
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
15 fights · 9-6
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pe…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee
—
L
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas
—
Blue corner
L1
Charles Oliveira
"Do Bronxs"
37-12
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
19 fights · 10-8
Last 5
L
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
—
W
UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
L
UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit
—
W
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowbo…
—