Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Joseph Benavidez
Sergio Pettis
57%
43%
Why
65"
Reach
Δ 4"
69"
34
Age
Δ 9y
25
29-8
Career record
Δ 3 pp
18-6
W6
Current streak
L1
14
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Benavidez: 59 sig / 2 TD ·
Pettis: 74 sig / 0 TD
Joseph Benavidez
Sergio Pettis
59
Sig strikes landed
59
151
Sig strikes attempted
147
76
Total strikes landed
80
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.8
4.5
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
147s
Control time
69s
Method
Decision
73%
KO/TKO
17%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W6
Joseph Benavidez
29-8
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
65"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
14 fights · 12-2
Last 5
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournamen…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs T…
—
W
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson
—
W
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swans…
—
Blue corner
L1
Sergio Pettis
18-6
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
10 fights · 7-3
Last 5
L
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Mor…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
W
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux
—
W
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson
—