Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Mike Santiago
Dan Ige
50%
50%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 2"
71"
29
Age
Δ 2y
27
19-13
Career record
Δ 2 pp
19-12
L2
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Santiago: 0 sig / 0 TD ·
Ige: 25 sig / 1 TD
Mike Santiago
Dan Ige
41
Sig strikes landed
36
86
Sig strikes attempted
92
65
Total strikes landed
62
1.6
Takedowns landed
1.3
4.0
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
175s
Control time
158s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Mike Santiago
19-13
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. C…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Str…
—
Blue corner
L1
Dan Ige
"100K"
19-12
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou
—