Back to UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2
Main Welterweight

CM Punk vs Mike Jackson

UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2 ·United Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
CM Punk
Mike Jackson
48% 52%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 1"
74"
40
Age
Δ 6y
33
0-2
Career record
Δ 25 pp
1-3
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Overturned · Round 3
Punk: 19 sig / 1 TD · Jackson: 64 sig / 1 TD
CM Punk
Mike Jackson
46
Sig strikes landed
39
157
Sig strikes attempted
49
75
Total strikes landed
65
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.2
6.5
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.70
Knockdowns
0.70
184s
Control time
201s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
13%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

CM Punk

0-2 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
40
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem
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Blue corner
L1

Mike Jackson

"The Truth"
1-3 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs T…
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