Prelims1
Heavyweight
Alistair Overeem vs Curtis Blaydes
UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2
·United Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Alistair Overeem
Curtis Blaydes
72%
28%
Why
80"
Reach
80"
38
Age
Δ 11y
27
47-20
Career record
Δ 7 pp
20-6
L1
Current streak
W4
13
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Overeem: 7 sig / 0 TD ·
Blaydes: 37 sig / 4 TD
Alistair Overeem
Curtis Blaydes
27
Sig strikes landed
38
57
Sig strikes attempted
79
39
Total strikes landed
57
0.3
Takedowns landed
1.5
0.7
Takedowns attempted
3.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
76s
Control time
214s
Method
Decision
23%
KO/TKO
70%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Alistair Overeem
"The Demolition Man"
47-20
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
13 fights · 8-5
Last 5
L
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
—
W
UFC 213: Romero vs. Whittaker
—
W
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2
—
L
UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arl…
—
Blue corner
W4
Curtis Blaydes
"Razor"
20-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
6 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold
—
W
UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre
—
W
UFC 213: Romero vs. Whittaker
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Do…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rothwell vs Do…
—