Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Andrei Arlovski
Tai Tuivasa
44%
56%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 2"
75"
39
Age
Δ 14y
25
35-24
Career record
Δ 2 pp
16-10
W2
Current streak
W2
11
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Arlovski: 51 sig / 0 TD ·
Tuivasa: 54 sig / 0 TD
Andrei Arlovski
Tai Tuivasa
32
Sig strikes landed
39
59
Sig strikes attempted
72
37
Total strikes landed
51
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.2
1.6
Takedowns attempted
0.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.50
90s
Control time
85s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Andrei Arlovski
"The Pitbull"
35-24
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database
11 fights · 6-5
Last 5
W
UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pe…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Corre…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. B…
—
Blue corner
W2
Tai Tuivasa
"Bam Bam"
16-10
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
25
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tyb…
—