🏆 Title fight
Main
Welterweight
Rafael Dos Anjos vs Colby Covington
UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2
·United Center
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Rafael Dos Anjos
Colby Covington
57%
43%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
34
Age
Δ 3y
30
33-17
Career record
Δ 12 pp
18-5
W3
Current streak
W5
21
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Dos Anjos: 105 sig / 3 TD ·
Covington: 99 sig / 7 TD
Rafael Dos Anjos
Colby Covington
61
Sig strikes landed
63
105
Sig strikes attempted
160
97
Total strikes landed
111
1.3
Takedowns landed
3.7
3.7
Takedowns attempted
10.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
108s
Control time
407s
Method
Decision
55%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Rafael Dos Anjos
33-17
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
21 fights · 16-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Lawler vs. Dos…
—
W
UFC 215: Nunes vs Shevchenko 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Corre…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
Blue corner
W5
Colby Covington
"Chaos"
18-5
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
9 fights · 8-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ma…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Corre…
—
W
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson
—
W
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs T…
—