Prelims2
Light Heavyweight
Rashad Evans vs Anthony Smith
UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2
·United Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Rashad Evans
Anthony Smith
29%
71%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 1"
76"
39
Age
Δ 9y
30
19-9-1
Career record
Δ 3 pp
38-23
L4
Current streak
L1
12
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Evans: 1 sig / 0 TD ·
Smith: 6 sig / 0 TD
Rashad Evans
Anthony Smith
30
Sig strikes landed
44
61
Sig strikes attempted
93
47
Total strikes landed
60
1.8
Takedowns landed
0.1
4.9
Takedowns attempted
0.4
0.00
Knockdowns
0.60
211s
Control time
29s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
47%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L4
Rashad Evans
"Suga"
19-9-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database
12 fights · 6-6
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Mor…
—
L
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2
—
L
UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans
—
L
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson
—
W
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks
—
Blue corner
L1
Anthony Smith
"Lionheart"
38-23
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. An…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. B…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournamen…
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joan…
—