Prelims1
Women's Strawweight
Claudia Gadelha vs Carla Esparza
UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2
·United Center
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Claudia Gadelha
Carla Esparza
62%
38%
Why
64"
Reach
Δ 0"
63"
30
Age
Δ 1y
31
18-6
Career record
Δ 3 pp
21-8
L1
Current streak
W2
7
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Gadelha: 26 sig / 4 TD ·
Esparza: 43 sig / 2 TD
Claudia Gadelha
Carla Esparza
49
Sig strikes landed
37
113
Sig strikes attempted
90
86
Total strikes landed
77
2.0
Takedowns landed
2.2
3.6
Takedowns attempted
5.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
195s
Control time
215s
Method
Decision
78%
KO/TKO
12%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Claudia Gadelha
"Claudinha"
18-6
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Saint Preux vs…
—
W
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogu…
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joan…
—
W
UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia
—
Blue corner
W2
Carla Esparza
"Cookie Monster"
21-8
Career record
Height
61"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Brow…
—
W
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux
—
L
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
—