Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Justin Willis
Chase Sherman
63%
37%
Why
78"
Reach
78"
31
Age
Δ 2y
28
9-2
Career record
Δ 27 pp
16-13
W2
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Willis: 76 sig / 1 TD ·
Sherman: 69 sig / 0 TD
Justin Willis
Chase Sherman
44
Sig strikes landed
42
93
Sig strikes attempted
97
54
Total strikes landed
54
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.1
2.0
Takedowns attempted
0.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
85s
Control time
46s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
49%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Justin Willis
"Big Pretty"
9-2
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
78"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Pon…
—
Blue corner
L1
Chase Sherman
"The Vanilla Gorilla"
16-13
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—