Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
David Branch
Thiago Santos
66%
34%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
37
Age
Δ 2y
34
22-7
Career record
Δ 8 pp
23-11
L1
Current streak
W4
6
UFC fights in our DB
13
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Branch: 5 sig / 0 TD ·
Santos: 14 sig / 0 TD
David Branch
Thiago Santos
19
Sig strikes landed
25
53
Sig strikes attempted
58
39
Total strikes landed
39
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.6
4.7
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
173s
Control time
57s
Method
Decision
28%
KO/TKO
57%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
David Branch
22-7
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. B…
—
W
UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos
—
L
UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs P…
—
Blue corner
W4
Thiago Santos
"Marreta"
23-11
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
13 fights · 9-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. An…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ma…
—
W
UFC 213: Romero vs. Whittaker
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Brow…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lan…
—