Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Frankie Edgar
Cub Swanson
44%
56%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
36
Age
Δ 2y
34
23-12-1
Career record
Δ 4 pp
31-15
L1
Current streak
L1
16
UFC fights in our DB
14
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Edgar: 58 sig / 0 TD ·
Swanson: 48 sig / 0 TD
Frankie Edgar
Cub Swanson
63
Sig strikes landed
75
153
Sig strikes attempted
161
88
Total strikes landed
90
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.2
7.2
Takedowns attempted
0.5
0.00
Knockdowns
0.40
194s
Control time
19s
Method
Decision
69%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Frankie Edgar
"The Answer"
23-12-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
16 fights · 10-5
Last 5
L
UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya
—
W
UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos
—
W
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
—
L
UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team McGr…
—
Blue corner
L1
Cub Swanson
31-15
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
14 fights · 10-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Or…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lo…
—
W
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
W
UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans
—